Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is estimated to be ∼10 times higher in children with versus without an autistic sibling in population-based studies. Prospective studies of infant siblings have revealed even higher familial recurrence rates. In the current prospective longitudinal study, we provide updated estimates of familial ASD recurrence using a multinational database of infants with older autistic siblings.

Data were collated across 18 sites of the Baby Siblings Research Consortium, an international network studying the earliest manifestations of ASD. A total of 1605 infants with an older autistic sibling were followed from early in life to 3 years, when they were classified as ASD or non-ASD. Hierarchical generalized linear modeling, with site as a random effect, was used to examine predictors of recurrence in families and calculate likelihood ratios.

A total of 20.2% of siblings developed ASD, which is not significantly higher than the previously reported rate of 18.7%. Male infant sex and >1 older affected sibling were significant predictors of familial recurrence. Proband sex also influenced recurrence rates, with siblings of female probands significantly more likely to develop ASD than siblings of male probands. Race and maternal education were also associated with recurrence in families.

The familial recurrence rate of ASD, as measured in infant sibling studies, has not changed appreciably since previous estimates were made in 2011. Younger siblings of autistic children, particularly those who are male, have an affected female sibling, multiple affected siblings, or are impacted by social inequities, should be closely monitored and promptly referred for diagnostic evaluation.